EQUATORIAL PACIFIC — NOAA's National Weather Service announced the formal development of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters project a 63% probability that sea surface temperatures in the monitored Pacific region will exceed 2.0°C during the upcoming fall and early winter.
NOAA defines El Nino as forming when equatorial Pacific temperatures remain at least 0.5°C above average for multiple consecutive months. If temperatures surpass 2.0°C, NOAA classifies the event as a very strong El Nino. Forecasters expect the current El Nino to peak one to two months earlier than the historical average based on recent temperature data.
During a typical El Nino winter, the north Pacific jet stream shifts southward, moving the primary storm track over the southern U.S. This shift typically results in drier conditions across the Northern Rockies, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. El Nino conditions generally correlate with warmer-than-average winter temperatures in the northern U.S.
El Nino winters increase the probability of storm activity, including rain and snow, across the southern U.S. Stronger upper-level winds during El Nino typically suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin, while weaker upper-level winds typically enhance tropical cyclone development in the eastern and central Pacific basins.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, stated that each El Nino event is unique. Graham said, "Every El Nino is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather." He said, "Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Nino patterns allow the National Weather Service to better predict and prepare the public and core partners for upcoming conditions."
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation climate pattern. Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a climate scientist at Columbia University, said, "Instead of scared, we can ask people to be prepared."