The average retail price for a pound of ground beef reached $6.90 last month, an increase of approximately 19 percent from the previous year. This price change comes as the U.S. cattle population has declined.

U.S. farms and pastures contained 86.2 million head of cattle and calves as of January, marking the lowest count since 1951, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. North America ranks as the world's second-largest beef producer, behind Brazil. In 2019, the U.S. cattle and calf population was approximately 95 million.

The decreased cattle population is partly due to an increased frequency of drought in U.S. cattle-raising regions. Multiple heatwaves in the early 2020s killed thousands of cattle in the U.S. over periods of several days. Such heatwaves can also reduce cattle breeding retention among ranchers, creating impacts that can persist for multiple years.

Feed costs have also risen, partly due to drought reducing available grazing grasslands. Additionally, tariffs implemented by the Trump administration increased fertilizer costs, which raised expenses for crops used as animal feed. A cattle calf requires between 16 months and two years to reach market weight.

Despite these factors, U.S. beef consumption has remained stable and has changed minimally over the past 15 years, even as retail prices increased. Beef demand is more price inelastic than chicken or pork, indicating that demand fluctuates less as prices rise. North America, led by the U.S., has the highest meat availability per person globally, according to a U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization report.

A 2012 U.S. Department of Agriculture paper calculated beef price elasticity at negative 0.70. This implies that a 10 percent increase in beef prices corresponds to a 7 percent decrease in demand. For comparison, chicken price elasticity is negative 0.8 and pork price elasticity is negative 1.26, according to the same paper. While overall herd numbers have fallen, the actual meat produced per cattle head has increased, primarily due to selective breeding for larger cattle.

The American Farm Bureau Federation projected that U.S. cattle numbers will likely not begin expanding again until 2028 at the earliest.