Long-term Bitcoin holders sold approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past two days, according to a note from Compass Point analyst Ed Engel. This selling activity follows a 12-day streak of net outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the longest such streak on record according to data provider SoSoValue.
Long-term holders—defined as those who held Bitcoin for at least 155 days—had remained mostly inactive from February through April but have recently reemerged as sellers. Engel noted that 26% of Bitcoin sold over the last 30 days came from investors who originally purchased the asset above $90,000. "This cohort of top-buyers had been resilient throughout the bear market; however, they're finally capitulating as BTC approaches new cycle lows," Engel said. He added, "Top-buyer capitulation is a very common theme in late cycle bear markets. This makes us more confident that BTC's bear market is in late stages."
Net assets across Bitcoin ETFs have declined to $85 billion from $107.8 billion as of May 14, reflecting sustained outflows. Citi analyst Alex Saunders emphasized the importance of ETF flows in shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory. "ETF flows are the primary driver of BTC price appreciation, explaining approximately 45% of weekly return variation, and the best vehicle for tracking investor adoption/appetite," Saunders said. He also noted, "Recent flows have been negative, and the chances for the passage of a U.S. market structure bill (a potential catalyst for renewed investor interest in our view) are diminishing."
Bitcoin is currently trading below its October record high of over $126,000 and has declined 10% week-to-date following fear-based selling on Monday. The cryptocurrency’s performance has diverged sharply from the broader stock market, which has reached new records. Saunders said, "We expect sentiment to remain lackluster, especially as the divergence with equity performance remains stark, absent positive news on the regulatory front or 'de-basement trade' fears around fiscal position."