Forecasters at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 55% chance of below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity for the 2026 season. They also estimated a 35% chance of near-normal activity and a 10% chance of above-normal activity.
NOAA attributed the expected reduction in storm activity to El Nino, the periodic warming of surface sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing storm activity in the Pacific. Historical data show a 60% reduction in hurricane days and decreased system intensity in the Atlantic during El Nino events.
El Nino disrupts global wind and rainfall systems, which can intensify floods, droughts, and heatwaves in various regions. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to 12 months, though some events persist longer. It also tends to raise global average temperatures slightly during its active phase.
Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity in mid-September, NOAA cautioned against complacency. "Although El Nino’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold," NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a news release.
Graham added, "It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season." NOAA emphasized that residents in hurricane-prone areas should continue planning and readiness efforts regardless of seasonal predictions.
El Nino events have historically coincided with fewer named storms and reduced hurricane intensity in the Atlantic basin. NOAA’s projections for 2026 incorporate observed oceanic and atmospheric indicators consistent with El Nino development.