SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO — The National Hurricane Center forecasts an 80% chance of tropical development in the Eastern Pacific within the next seven days, with a system expected to form well southwest of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula in early June. The center designated its first area to watch for tropical development thousands of miles off the coast of Mexico, noting environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form mid-next week.
Tropical activity has remained quiet in the Eastern Pacific since the hurricane season began on May 15. The National Hurricane Center currently gives the region a near 0% chance of tropical formation within 48 hours but an 80% chance over the next seven days. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also highlights an area off the southwestern coast of Mexico with an increased probability of tropical development between June 3 and June 9.
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula in early June, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecast models, including the American GFS and European ECMWF, have consistently indicated potential tropical development in that region during the same timeframe. Sea surface temperatures off the coast of Mexico and westward into the open Pacific are currently running roughly 2 to 3 degrees above average.
The system, once formed, is expected to remain out at sea and will not impact land. Warmer ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific typically indicate the presence of an El Niño climate pattern, which is expected to develop rapidly into summer. El Niño conditions historically correlate with increased tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific while suppressing it in the Atlantic.
A typical Eastern Pacific hurricane season averages 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. During El Niño years since 1990, that average rises to approximately 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The first named storm in the Eastern Pacific typically forms around June 10.
Since 1950, there have been 44 named tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific during May, comprising 25 tropical storms and 19 hurricanes. The last Eastern Pacific storm in May was Hurricane Agatha in 2022, which moved into Mexico on May 30 as a Category 2 hurricane.