MIAMI — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) introduced updates to its 'cone of uncertainty' graphics for the 2026 hurricane season. Starting in 2026, the NHC's revised cone graphics will display the full extent of inland hurricane watches and warnings, not just coastal ones.
The updated cone graphic uses gray shading for the entire five-day forecast period, rather than only for the first three days. It also includes a crosshatched area to indicate locations under both a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. The NHC is also testing an experimental cone graphic based on a new method of analyzing past forecast errors by decomposing total track error.
The cone of uncertainty, first introduced by the NHC in 2002, is designed so that the hurricane center's actual track falls within the cone about 67% of the time, based on average track forecast errors from the previous five years. Since 2007, the NHC has used this two-thirds index as a compromise between overly narrow and overly broad representations.
Hurricane Ian in 2022 made landfall near Fort Myers as a high-end Category 4 storm, less than 36 hours after the official forecast track had predicted landfall near Tampa Bay. Ian’s storm surge extended well south of the cone of uncertainty, causing major flooding as far south as Naples, Florida, and resulting in at least 161 deaths and $112 billion in damage. Hurricane Michael in 2018 caused billions of dollars in wind-driven destruction across Georgia. Hurricane Helene in 2024 led to catastrophic, deadly flooding that killed more than 100 people in and around western North Carolina.
Robbie Berg, warning coordination meteorologist at NHC, said, "It was taking people by surprise when the hurricane would move outside the cone." Gina Eosco, director of NOAA’s Weather Program Office, said, "Research shows the public perceives the cone as an area of concern – an indication to continue monitoring the forecast." A 2022 survey of over 2,800 Floridians found that nearly half believed the cone of uncertainty showed all possible hurricane tracks. Scotney Evans, University of Miami researcher, and colleagues wrote, "Our analysis suggests that many residents have difficulty interpreting several aspects, suggesting a rethink on how to graphically communicate aspects such as uncertainty; the size of the storm; areas of likely damage; watches and warnings; and wind intensity categories." Evacuations are based largely on storm surge risk rather than the cone of uncertainty, and storm surge warnings can extend well beyond the cone.