STRAIT OF HORMUZ — U.S. President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that Iran has "nothing left in a military sense," even as classified U.S. intelligence assessments from early this month concluded that Tehran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers, and underground facilities. The assessments found that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz.
"When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it's virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement. They are aiding and abetting the enemy!" Trump wrote in the post.
The U.S. intelligence community found that Tehran retains substantial ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment. Iran retains about 75% of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70% of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, according to the assessments. The findings also indicate the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.
A CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers concluded that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship.
American military bases and other equipment in the Persian Gulf region sustained damage from Iranian strikes that is far worse than publicly acknowledged and is expected to cost billions of dollars to repair. Satellite imagery analysis found that Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft, and key radar, communications, and air defense equipment.
Phil Gordon, a foreign policy scholar at the Brookings Institution, said: "10 weeks in, the strategic failure is undeniable. The risk now is that having missed the opportunity to declare victory after the first few weeks, Trump can't accept defeat and humiliation so will keep looking for the next quick fix, thereby likely only making things worse."