TORONTO — Researchers at the University of Toronto found a year-over-year median decline of approximately 42% in Canadian visits to United States metropolitan areas, according to a report analyzing cell phone data from devices traveling across the border between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2026. Official border-crossing figures showed a roughly 25% decline in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas over the same period.
The analysis identified declines in Canadian visits to cities in New York, New Hampshire and Vermont, as well as to Las Vegas, Walt Disney World and winter recreation areas in Florida. The data also recorded reductions in Canadian travel to San Francisco and Houston, covering both tourists and business travelers.
Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto and a co-author of the report, said the data showed a decline in travel to Grand Rapids, Michigan, a city with deep economic connections to Ontario through the auto industry. The United States has imposed tariffs on some Canadian goods, including vehicles.
The cell phone data used in the research tool also captured freight traffic, which border-crossing data do not record. The data could additionally track changes involving Canadians who had previously lived in the U.S. and left.
According to data from the Canadian government, Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. were down 25% in 2025. That same year, trips to Canada by U.S. residents decreased by 7.5%, Canadian government data showed.
The University of Toronto report covers a two-year window spanning April 1, 2024, through March 31, 2026, comparing year-over-year travel patterns across that period. The 42% median decline reflects the difference between the April 2024–March 2025 period and the April 2025–March 2026 period.