ISLAMABAD — President Donald Trump called off a planned trip to Islamabad by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff that had been intended to negotiate an end to the war in Iran.
Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, while the United States is blockading Iran's ports. Iran and the U.S. have not reached a closer agreement on Iran's nuclear materials. One estimate placed Iran's ability to withstand a blockade at three to six months.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said the current pause in hostilities was fragile. "I think the ceasefire is inherently unstable because both sides are constantly testing each other's limits and, in a way, escalating the conflict," he said.
Vaez said the simultaneous maritime pressure from both sides increased the risk of renewed fighting. "The double blockade actually creates a pretty tenuous situation because every interdiction, every warning shot, every seizure of vessels, could become a trigger for a wider relapse into conflict," he said. "And the reality is that this is a high-stakes game of chicken, in which both sides are hoping that the economic pressure will force the other side to blink first."
Iran had boosted oil sales to China before the current standoff began, and faces constraints on its energy sector. Iran's storage capacity for oil production is limited, and a forced shutdown of production could prevent the country from reviving output, given limited investment in energy infrastructure over the years. Vaez said Iran had built up some cushion. "So economically, they have enough cushion for two to three months to be able to withstand the blockade," he said. "They have storage of basic staples, et cetera, but all of that is quite limited, and some of that capacity was actually damaged or impacted during the war."
Vaez also said Iranians believed the American timeline for a resolution was shorter than their own. "I think the timeline is shorter, but the issue is that the Iranians believe that the American timeline is even shorter than that," he said. "In other words, if the timeline is measured in two to three months for the Iranians, they believe that it is measured in two to three weeks for President Trump."