U.S. farms experienced an increase in Chapter 12 bankruptcies during 2025 and early 2026. Filings rose by 46% in 2025 to a total of 315, and at least 158 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed in the first four months of 2026.

April 2026 recorded 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings, representing a 130% increase compared to the same month in the previous year. These increases occurred as farms faced rising input costs, a decrease in U.S. soybean exports, and potential climate-related threats to crop yields.

The Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign increased financing costs for farms. Farmers with loans exceeding $100,000 faced interest rates of nearly 7%, according to the Kansas City Fed. This interest rate was more than double the rate from four years prior.

U.S. soybean exports decreased to $3 billion in 2025, down from a peak of nearly $18 billion in 2022. Soybean growers are expected to face their fourth consecutive money-losing year in 2026. Larger harvests in South America also sent soybean prices down by a third from 2022 levels.

Costs for diesel and fertilizer increased following conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Energy markets are not expected to return to normal for several months, and fertilizer prices are anticipated to remain higher than usual into spring 2027. Additionally, tariffs on key metals raised prices for agricultural machinery including tractors, combines, harvesters, and parts.

AccuWeather warned that conditions are present for a multi-year drought that could affect crop yields and water supplies. Previous Super El Niño instances resulted in dry conditions in the Plains states for two to three years afterward. El Niño often delivers above-average rainfall in the southern U.S., while drought is common in northern areas.

"If the long-term drought is as bad as it could be, and you are starting off already with severe drought, this raises the real possibility of a 'mini-Dust Bowl,'" AccuWeather founder and Executive Chair Joel Myers said in a statement. "Soybeans will be stressed further in the months and years ahead, and yields on some of these crops will be reduced in parts of the country. If that happens, it will have a negative impact on food production, leading to price inflation. Furthermore, water supplies will be harmed, as well."

"We are not predicting a Dust Bowl, which was disastrous during the 1930s, to occur now because there were poor farming practices back then and other things that we do better today," Myers added. "But we are taking the situation we are experiencing today very seriously."